The eight telemetry fields
| Field | What it measures | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Swish, Rim-In, Bank Shot or a named miss, plus contact counts | Separates clean makes from lucky rolls |
| Power Accuracy | Closeness to the solved ideal power (100% = centre) | Your primary timing score |
| Launch Angle | Degrees above horizontal, plus horizontal offset | Check arc consistency |
| Distance | Release point to rim centre, metres and feet | Context for every other number |
| Ball Velocity | Speed at release and the active gravity field | Compare to the minimum-speed solution |
| Arc Height | Apex above the floor and relative to the rim | Higher apex usually means steeper entry |
| Release Timing | Perfect, or Early/Late with millisecond error | Reveals directional bias |
| Entry Angle | Descent angle as the ball crosses rim height | Below 40° the target gets small fast |
How many shots before a percentage means anything?
Shooting percentage is a sample from an unknown true ability. The uncertainty in that sample is the standard error:
SE = √( p · (1 − p) / n ) 95% interval ≈ p ± 1.96 · SE
For a 40% shooter, here is how quickly the fog lifts:
| Attempts n | Standard error | 95% range around 40% |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | ±9.8% | 21% – 59% |
| 50 | ±6.9% | 26% – 54% |
| 100 | ±4.9% | 30% – 50% |
| 250 | ±3.1% | 34% – 46% |
| 500 | ±2.2% | 36% – 44% |
The lesson: a hot ten-shot run is almost pure noise. Before you decide a spot is "your" spot, collect at least 100 attempts there — and compare intervals, not raw percentages.
Efficiency formulas worth knowing
Field-goal percentage treats every make equally. Professional analysts adjust for the extra point on threes and for free throws:
eFG% = (FGM + 0.5 · 3PM) / FGA TS% = PTS / ( 2 · (FGA + 0.44 · FTA) ) Points per shot = PTS / FGA
Example: 8 makes from 20 attempts, 4 of them threes. FG% is 40%, but eFG% is (8 + 2) / 20 = 50%. Those 20 shots produced 20 points — one point per shot, the same as a 50% two-point shooter.
In the Shot Lab, estimate your own eFG% by treating Three-Pointer, Wing and Corner makes as threes and Free Throw makes as twos for practice purposes.
Swish rate: a quality signal
Makes that touch iron are partly luck: small changes in contact point decide Rim-In versus Rim-Out. Swishes are not. Tracking swishes ÷ makes gives an early indicator of genuine accuracy that stabilises faster than FG% alone. A rising swish rate at a flat FG% usually means improvement is coming.
A data-driven improvement loop
- Baseline. Shoot 50 attempts at one spot with fixed settings. Record FG%, average Power Accuracy and the Early/Late split.
- Diagnose. Find the dominant miss. Mostly Short with Early timing? It is a release problem. Perfect timing but Rim-Out? Revisit angle and entry target.
- Intervene. Change one variable only — for example, raise the arc 4° or move the target 7 cm deeper.
- Re-measure. Shoot another 50. Compare using intervals, not single numbers.
- Keep or revert. Adopt the change only if it helps beyond the noise; otherwise return to baseline and try a different lever.
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